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| ‘US and China should come to an agreement to mutually cut their military budgets …’ Photograph: Leah Millis/AP |
Addressing the pressing global challenge of climate change requires a united front, and the collaborative efforts of the United States, China, and other industrialized nations are essential for the well-being of our planet. If these nations fail to work together to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the consequences for future generations will be dire, leading to a planet that is increasingly inhospitable. Regrettably, the path to cooperation in addressing this existential threat is being overshadowed by hawkish stances in both the United States and China, raising concerns of a detrimental descent into a destructive cold war.
The present moment demands a profound shift in the way we perceive geopolitics. It's crucial to acknowledge that international collaboration serves not only the best interests of individual countries but is absolutely imperative for the survival of our planet.
The facts speak for themselves. The past eight years have seen the hottest temperatures on record. This year is poised to become the hottest in recorded history, and the recent July marked the hottest month ever documented. Across the United States, July witnessed over 3,200 daily temperature records broken. Numerous American cities surpassed or tied their previous daily temperature records multiple times. For instance, Phoenix endured 31 consecutive days with temperatures at or exceeding 110F (43.3C), extending well beyond the previous record. Cities like El Paso, Miami, and Austin also grappled with record-setting stretches of extreme heat.
Unprecedented wildfires in Canada resulted in smog engulfing US cities and traversing vast distances, leading to alarmingly poor air quality. In Vermont, the worst natural disaster since 1927 saw floods damaging 4,000 homes and 800 businesses. Maui, Hawaii, experienced swift-moving fires that decimated 2,700 structures in the historic Lahaina region, claiming more than 100 lives and ranking as the deadliest wildfire in the United States in over a century.
However, the record-breaking heatwaves and catastrophic climate-induced events are not unique to the United States. China encountered record-high temperatures recently, including a historic all-time high of 126F (52.2C). Severe flooding in the country resulted in approximately 100 casualties, nearly 200,000 damaged homes, 1.5 million displaced individuals, and over $13 billion in damages.
From Tokyo to Tunis, cities worldwide have set new records for extreme temperatures. Iran faced a heat index of 158F (70C), pushing human limits to their extremes. Notably, regions such as Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and El Salvador all witnessed the shattering of temperature records. Even during South America's winter, some areas experienced temperatures exceeding 100F (37.7C), a staggering climatic anomaly that a climate historian characterized as "one of the extreme events the world has ever seen."
The escalated temperatures aren't limited to terrestrial environments. Our oceans are witnessing unprecedented warming, with 44% currently experiencing a marine heatwave. The Mediterranean Sea is enduring record-high temperatures, exceeding the average by over 9F in certain areas. Waters off the coast of Newfoundland are as much as 18F above the norm. In the vicinity of Miami, ocean temperatures reached 101F (38.3C), figures more reminiscent of a hot tub than the ocean. This warming trend poses a grave threat to coral reefs, marine ecosystems, and fisheries worldwide.
Amid this global crisis, there are both encouraging and discouraging developments. The positive news is that recent years have witnessed significant steps toward transitioning the global economy from fossil fuels to more sustainable and efficient energy sources. For instance, the Inflation Reduction Act in the United States allocated an unprecedented $300 billion for investments in clean energy and energy efficiency. This move could lead to a 500% surge in US solar energy and a doubling of wind energy by 2035, thereby decreasing carbon emissions by around 40%.
Other countries have also made substantial strides. China invested $546 billion in clean energy in the previous year and continues to outpace the rest of the world in the production and implementation of renewable energy sources. It's projected that China might deploy enough renewable energy by 2030 to power the entire US electrical grid three times over. The European Union is planning to allocate over $1 trillion for renewables and energy efficiency in the upcoming decade, with the goal of achieving a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels.
Furthermore, a significant portion of the corporate sector has shifted away from fossil fuel investments, dedicating substantial resources to sustainable energy initiatives. Collectively, the International Energy Agency anticipates global investments of $1.6 trillion this year in areas such as wind, solar power, electric vehicles, batteries, and electric grids—surpassing the $1 trillion allocated to fossil fuels. This momentum has led the IEA to predict that renewables will overtake coal as the primary source of global electricity generation by early 2025, earlier than previously anticipated.
However, the sobering reality is that these advancements remain insufficient to adequately address the crisis at hand. The pace of change isn't swift enough to secure the future of our planet. The recent report from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that without immediate action, the global temperature will surpass the critical 1.5C (2.7F) threshold by the early 2030s, triggering grave consequences for future generations. The scientific consensus is unambiguous: without urgent efforts from the US, China, and the international community to drastically reduce carbon emissions, we risk causing irreversible and catastrophic damage to our planet.
It's essential to acknowledge the historical context. Since the advent of the Industrial Revolution, the United States has contributed the largest share of carbon emissions, setting the stage for the current climate crisis despite the improvements in living standards fueled by fossil fuels.
More recently, the rapid growth of the Chinese economy has elevated it to the status of the world's primary carbon emitter. Presently, China is constructing six times as many coal-fired power plants as the rest of the world combined—equivalent to the addition of two new coal plants every week. Last year, China quadrupled the number of newly approved coal plants compared to 2021. The nation's current plans foresee adding a quantity of new coal to its energy grid that is equivalent to the entirety of India's usage (the second-largest coal user globally) and five times the coal capacity of the United States.
While it is evident that China's government is implementing policies that warrant opposition from both domestic and international spheres, the focus must expand beyond confrontation. China's actions, such as its treatment of Uyghurs, threats towards Taiwan, and infringements on freedom in Tibet and Hong Kong, are undoubtedly concerning. The country has engaged in bullying its neighbors, manipulating the global trade system, intellectual property theft, and constructing a surveillance state that reeks of dystopia.
Certainly, the United States is rightfully mobilizing its allies to hold China accountable on these issues. However, a strategy predominantly centered on a zero-sum global conflict with China is unlikely to transform the country's behavior. Instead, it risks isolating allies and hampering prospects for cooperation on climate change—the planet's most critical challenge. A paradigm shift is imperative, and historical instances offer insight.
In 1962, the brink of nuclear war between the US and the Soviet Union prompted President John F. Kennedy and Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev to collaborate to avert mutual destruction. In the subsequent months, Kennedy proposed an arms reduction plan to the Soviet Union, altering the confrontational dynamics that had brought the world to the precipice. Even ardent anti-communists like Nixon and Reagan ventured bold initiatives to reduce tensions, acknowledging the grave risks of global devastation. A parallel dynamic is evident today; the world is teetering on the brink, facing impending disaster unless a new course is charted.
The crux of the issue lies in the need for transformation. Over the recent years, both the United States and China have substantially augmented their military budgets. The US expends approximately $900 billion on the Pentagon—an amount surpassing the combined spending of the next 10 nations. In parallel, China, the second-largest military spender globally, allocates nearly $300 billion. Astonishingly, these staggering sums designated for "defense" haven't translated to triumph in the battle against the climate crisis. The US has encountered a series of costly floods, fires, droughts, and extreme weather events. In China, devastating flooding has incurred substantial financial losses. Climate change disregards borders, and cities like Shanghai and New York face the impending threat of submersion unless substantial measures are taken.
Proposing a "radical" notion for consideration: diverting the astronomical funds allocated for potential war scenarios between the US and China into a joint endeavor to bolster energy efficiency, transition to sustainable energy sources, and eradicate fossil fuel dependence. These nations should also extend support to developing countries that bear the brunt of the climate crisis through no fault of their own.
Predictably, skeptics in both nations may dismiss such a proposition as naive and impractical, offering a myriad of reasons for its implausibility. The response to such skepticism is this: engage with Vermont residents who have lost their homes due to unprecedented flooding, converse with families in Hawaii mourning the loss of loved ones in recent fires, reach out to the over 1 million displaced individuals in China due to catastrophic flooding, and empathize with people in southern Africa facing starvation as a result of drought and flooding. Speak with farmers across the globe who can no longer sustain crops due to water shortages.
More critically, lend an ear to the hundreds of millions of young individuals worldwide who are losing hope, grappling with whether it's responsible to bring children into a world characterized by formidable climate challenges.
Nelson Mandela's famous words resonate deeply: "It always seems impossible until it's done." If we are to rescue our planet from impending catastrophe, the time for audacious action is now. Let's seize the opportunity.
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